オガワ　タカユキ   OGAWA Takayuki
  小川　貴之
   所属   大阪経済大学  経済学部 経済学科
   職種   教授
言語種別 英語
発行・発表の年月 2025/11/10
形態種別 その他
標題 Knightian Income Uncertainty and International Migration: Evidence from Europe
執筆形態 共著
掲載誌名 SSRN Working Paper
掲載区分国外
出版社・発行元 SSRN (Social Science Research Network)
総ページ数 44
著者・共著者 Takayuki Ogawa and Jun Sakamoto
概要 We propose a novel measure of income-related uncertainty, grounded in Izhakian's (2020) expected-utility framework of Knightian uncertainty, and examine its effect on international migration using a panel of European countries from 2007-2022. We find a robust negative association between income uncertainty and net immigration inflows. The effect is stronger in high-income countries, consistent with existing empirical evidence that uncertainty aversion amplifies the deterrent impact of uncertainty when the expected probability of favorable outcomes, i.e., the likelihood of achieving higher income in our migration context, is higher. Our measure outperforms broader proxies such as the Economic Policy Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Uncertainty indexes, highlighting its value in capturing distributional income uncertainty directly faced by migrants and offering a more behaviorally relevant basis for understanding how uncertainty shapes international migration.
DOI https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5730164